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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Shepton Mallet 1 v Bridgwater 1 (Mon 26 Nov 2018)Match played between Mark Simmons (home) and James Lyn (away).Match won by James Lyn. Result: 9-15,6-15,14-16. Starting level for Mark Simmons: 2,076, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for James Lyn: 1,998, level confidence: 59%. Mark Simmons to win as he is currently playing 4% better than James Lyn. James Lyn won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 59% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Lyn played 57% better than Mark Simmons in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Lyn actually played at a level of 2,555 and Mark Simmons at a level of 1,623. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Lyn changes to +27% and Mark Simmons changes to -22%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Lyn becomes +11% and for Mark Simmons becomes -8.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2018/2019' so the adjustment for James Lyn is +8.2% and for Mark Simmons is -6.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mark Simmons is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Lyn: 76%, Mark Simmons: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Lyn: 60%, Mark Simmons: 66%. A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark Simmons: 2,032, level confidence: 66%. Final level for James Lyn: 2,133, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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