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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Street 2 v Merriott 1 (Mon 11 Nov 2019)Match played between Matthew Davey (home) and Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle (away).Match won by Matthew Davey. Result: 9-15,15-10,9-15,15-11,15-6. Starting level for Matthew Davey: 2,828, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 2,210, level confidence: 62%. Matthew Davey to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle. Matthew Davey won 60% of the games and 53% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Davey played 10% better than Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle in this match. As Matthew Davey has played below his allowed range at 2,565, his level reduction is 5.4% before damping. On the assumption that Matthew Davey would normally have been playing at level 2,772 (based on typical behaviour), Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.7%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.7% and 5.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Davey changes to -4% and Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle changes to +5.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Davey becomes -2.4% and for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle becomes +3.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Matthew Davey is -1.8% and for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle is +2.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Davey: 86%, Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Davey: 80%, Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 73%. A final adjustment of -1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Matthew Davey: 2,729, level confidence: 80%. Final level for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 2,257, level confidence: 73%. Notes
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