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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Wyvern 1 v Merriott 1 (Mon 09 Dec 2019)Match played between Keith 'Boomerang' Griffith (home) and Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle (away).Match won by Keith 'Boomerang' Griffith. Result: 15-12,15-8,13-15,15-13. Starting level for Keith 'Boomerang' Griffith: 3,466, level confidence: 45%. Starting level for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 2,184, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Keith 'Boomerang' Griffith to win as he is currently playing 59% better than Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle. Keith 'Boomerang' Griffith won 75% of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith 'Boomerang' Griffith played 24% better than Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle in this match. As Keith 'Boomerang' Griffith has played below his allowed range at 2,853, his level reduction is 5.3% before damping. On the assumption that Keith 'Boomerang' Griffith would normally have been playing at level 3,257 (based on typical behaviour), Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.3% and 7.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith 'Boomerang' Griffith changes to -4.3% and Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle changes to +4.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith 'Boomerang' Griffith becomes -2.4% and for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle becomes +2.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Keith 'Boomerang' Griffith is -1.8% and for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle is +2.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith 'Boomerang' Griffith: 67%, Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith 'Boomerang' Griffith: 59%, Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 78%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Keith 'Boomerang' Griffith: 3,399, level confidence: 59%. Final level for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 2,226, level confidence: 78%. Notes
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