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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Merriott 1 v Shepton Mallet 1 (Mon 09 Sep 2019)Match played between Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle (home) and Marcus Milne-Holme (away).Match won by Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle. Result: 15-13,10-15,15-7,15-10. Starting level for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 2,132, level confidence: 39%. Starting level for Marcus Milne-Holme: 1,194, level confidence: 23%. Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle to win as he is currently playing 79% better than Marcus Milne-Holme. Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle won 75% of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle played 24% better than Marcus Milne-Holme in this match. As Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle has played below his allowed range at 1,600, his level reduction is 8% before damping. On the assumption that Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle would normally have been playing at level 1,942 (based on typical behaviour), Marcus Milne-Holme played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.9% and 10.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle changes to -3.4% and Marcus Milne-Holme changes to +10.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle becomes -2.4% and for Marcus Milne-Holme becomes +6.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle is -1.8% and for Marcus Milne-Holme is +4.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 62%, Marcus Milne-Holme: 48%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 52%, Marcus Milne-Holme: 40%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 2,099, level confidence: 52%. Final level for Marcus Milne-Holme: 1,253, level confidence: 40%. Notes
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