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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: Merriott 2 v Taunton School 1 (Mon 30 Sep 2019)Match played between Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle (home) and Nigel Smith (away).Match won by Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle. Result: 13-15,15-12,15-12,15-12. Starting level for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 2,122, level confidence: 67%. Starting level for Nigel Smith: 1,650, level confidence: 68%. Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Nigel Smith. Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle won 75% of the games and 53% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle played 21% better than Nigel Smith in this match. As Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle has played below his allowed range at 2,013, his level reduction is 0.6% before damping. On the assumption that Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle would normally have been playing at level 2,078 (based on typical behaviour), Nigel Smith played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 1.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle changes to -0.5% and Nigel Smith changes to +1.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle becomes -0.4% and for Nigel Smith becomes +1.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle is 0% and for Nigel Smith is +1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 82%, Nigel Smith: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 79%, Nigel Smith: 80%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 2,121, level confidence: 79%. Final level for Nigel Smith: 1,671, level confidence: 80%. Notes
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