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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: Taunton School 1 v Merriott 2 (Mon 04 Nov 2019)Match played between Nigel Smith (home) and Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle (away).Match won by Nigel Smith. Result: 17-15,17-15,9-15,15-7. Starting level for Nigel Smith: 1,717, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 2,322, level confidence: 67%. Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Nigel Smith. Nigel Smith won 75% of the games and 53% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nigel Smith played 21% better than Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nigel Smith actually played at a level of 2,192 and Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle at a level of 1,819. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nigel Smith changes to +21% and Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle changes to -23%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nigel Smith becomes +9.2% and for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle becomes -9.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Nigel Smith is +6.9% and for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle is -6.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nigel Smith: 87%, Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nigel Smith: 68%, Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 64%. A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Nigel Smith: 1,835, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 2,210, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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