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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: Wyvern 3 v Merriott 2 (Mon 07 Oct 2019)Match played between Graham 'Beyonce' Bishop (home) and Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle (away).Match won by Graham 'Beyonce' Bishop. Result: 15-10,15-8,15-10. Starting level for Graham 'Beyonce' Bishop: 2,653, level confidence: 35%. Starting level for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 2,090, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Graham 'Beyonce' Bishop to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle. Graham 'Beyonce' Bishop won all of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Graham 'Beyonce' Bishop played 61% better than Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Graham 'Beyonce' Bishop actually played at a level of 2,985 and Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle at a level of 1,857. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Graham 'Beyonce' Bishop changes to +11% and Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle changes to -4.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Graham 'Beyonce' Bishop becomes +4.8% and for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle becomes -2.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Graham 'Beyonce' Bishop is +3.6% and for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle is -2.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Graham 'Beyonce' Bishop: 59%, Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Graham 'Beyonce' Bishop: 52%, Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 78%. A final adjustment of -0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Graham 'Beyonce' Bishop: 2,711, level confidence: 52%. Final level for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 2,049, level confidence: 78%. Notes
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