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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: Merriott 2 v Huish Episcopi 1 (Mon 14 Oct 2019)Match played between Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle (home) and Daniel Vincent (away).Match won by Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle. Result: 15-12,15-9,15-4. Starting level for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 2,049, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Daniel Vincent: 2,425, level confidence: 64%. Daniel Vincent to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle. Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle won all of the games and 64% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 80% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle played 80% better than Daniel Vincent in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle actually played at a level of 2,991 and Daniel Vincent at a level of 1,661. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 46% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle changes to +36% and Daniel Vincent changes to -42%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle becomes +13.6% and for Daniel Vincent becomes -15%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle is +10.2% and for Daniel Vincent is -10.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Daniel Vincent is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 87%, Daniel Vincent: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 59%, Daniel Vincent: 55%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 2,260, level confidence: 59%. Final level for Daniel Vincent: 2,315, level confidence: 55%. Notes
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