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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: Huish Episcopi 1 v Merriott 2 (Mon 18 Nov 2019)Match played between Luke Vincent (home) and Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle (away).Match won by Luke Vincent. Result: 15-8,15-10,15-13:8-15,7-15,13-15:15-12,12-15,15-7,10-15,15-10:15-6,12-15,15-7,8-15,15-13:15-4,15-8,14-16,15-10. Starting level for Luke Vincent: 2,919, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 2,259, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Luke Vincent to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle. Luke Vincent won all of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Luke Vincent played 48% better than Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Luke Vincent actually played at a level of 3,128 and Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle at a level of 2,108. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.2% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.3% and 6.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Luke Vincent changes to +6.3% and Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle changes to -6.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Luke Vincent becomes +3.1% and for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle becomes -3.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Luke Vincent is +2.3% and for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle is -2.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Luke Vincent: 85%, Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Luke Vincent: 79%, Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 79%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Luke Vincent: 2,983, level confidence: 79%. Final level for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 2,199, level confidence: 79%. Notes
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