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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3: Huish Episcopi 2 v Merriott 2 (Mon 03 Feb 2020)Match played between Chris Wall (home) and Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle (away).Match won by Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle. Result: 10-15,8-15,14-16. Starting level for Chris Wall: 1,090, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 2,328, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle to win as he is currently playing 114% better than Chris Wall. Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle won all of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle played 47% better than Chris Wall in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,652 and 2,328 without affecting his level. As Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle has played below his allowed range at 1,629, his level reduction is 1.4% before damping. On the assumption that Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle would normally have been playing at level 1,999 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Wall played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 7.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle changes to -0.8% and Chris Wall changes to +7.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle becomes -0.6% and for Chris Wall becomes +5.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle is -0.5% and for Chris Wall is +3.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 86%, Chris Wall: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 72%, Chris Wall: 67%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Chris Wall: 1,130, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Andy 'Gary Barlow' Gentle: 2,314, level confidence: 72%. Notes
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