|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: Shepton Mallet 1 v Wyvern 3 (Mon 03 Feb 2020)Match played between David Cox (home) and George ‘Number Three’ Weston (away).Match won by David Cox. Result: 15-9,15-17,16-14,15-7:15-7,15-6,15-7:15-13,15-13,19-17:15-10,10-15,11-15,12-15:15-4,12-15,15-11,15-12. Starting level for David Cox: 4,916, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for George ‘Number Three’ Weston: 3,192, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. David Cox to win as he is currently playing 54% better than George ‘Number Three’ Weston. David Cox won 75% of the games and 56% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Cox played 27% better than George ‘Number Three’ Weston in this match. As David Cox has played below his allowed range at 4,188, his level reduction is 3.7% before damping. On the assumption that David Cox would normally have been playing at level 4,652 (based on typical behaviour), George ‘Number Three’ Weston played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.3%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.9% and 5.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Cox changes to -2.9% and George ‘Number Three’ Weston changes to +5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Cox becomes -1.7% and for George ‘Number Three’ Weston becomes +2.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for David Cox is -1.3% and for George ‘Number Three’ Weston is +2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Cox: 81%, George ‘Number Three’ Weston: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Cox: 74%, George ‘Number Three’ Weston: 80%. A final adjustment of -1.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for David Cox: 4,652, level confidence: 74%. Final level for George ‘Number Three’ Weston: 3,272, level confidence: 80%. Notes
|