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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: Wyvern 3 v Shepton Mallet 1 (Mon 09 Mar 2020)Match played between George ‘Number Three’ Weston (home) and David Cox (away).Match won by David Cox. Result: 4-15,8-15,10-15:9-15,15-10,15-6,15-7:13-15,12-15,12-15:8-15,11-15,7-15:?-?. Starting level for George ‘Number Three’ Weston: 3,488, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for David Cox: 4,695, level confidence: 86%. Set manually. David Cox to win as he is currently playing 35% better than George ‘Number Three’ Weston. David Cox won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Cox played 105% better than George ‘Number Three’ Weston in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Cox actually played at a level of 5,788 and George ‘Number Three’ Weston at a level of 2,830. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Cox changes to +18% and George ‘Number Three’ Weston changes to -20%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Cox becomes +5.9% and for George ‘Number Three’ Weston becomes -7.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for David Cox is +4.4% and for George ‘Number Three’ Weston is -5.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Cox: 93%, George ‘Number Three’ Weston: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Cox: 75%, George ‘Number Three’ Weston: 71%. A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for George ‘Number Three’ Weston: 3,276, level confidence: 71%. Final level for David Cox: 5,005, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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